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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (48253)	12/27/2005 8:31:14 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Note that the premium was .13% on 23 Dec. I wonder why the premium/discount needs to be awaited for the 26 and 27. The 26th was a holiday and the computation for today should be automatic once todays trades are known. 23 Dec 2005 $50.070 $50.13 0.130% 2,877,600 26 Dec 2005 $50.080 awaited awaited 2,877,600 27 Dec 2005 $50.577 awaited awaited 4,400,800

To: ild who wrote (48253)	12/28/2005 11:52:43 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Dec 28 2005 12:36 trotsky (Romanov@CALVF) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved worth $2.66? surely you jest. the company has now almost 400 million shares out if one considers the recently repriced warrants. since i've begun watching this stock 5 years ago its share count has ballooned by nearly 100%. meanwhile, management has consistently proven long on promises and short on delivery. it may be a good speculative buy here at the lower end of its trading range, but let's not delude ourselves about its value. a good argument could be made that its current market cap already represents a fundamental overvaluation, since all those promising prospects appear to remain pie-in-the-sky practically forever. for instance, we keep hearing about the impressive cobalt property. if it's so great, why hasn't it come on stream already? should they not concentrate on getting this potential cash cow going? just one of many inexplicable inconsistencies. n.b., i actually hold some CALVF, i'm just not harboring any illusions about it. Date: Wed Dec 28 2005 12:02 trotsky (P. Yorkie, @'thin legal ice') ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved don't be ridiculous. we can discuss stocks until the cows come home, and it will be perfectly legitimate ( do you know how many stock discussion boards there are? ) . so we'll best go with your last comment ( the one that ends with 'don't listen to me' ) . the only instance in which discussion of stocks enters into murky waters legally speaking is when someone uses multiple boards to e.g. pump a stock with the express intention of selling it to the rubes who wade in, a.k.a. 'pump and dump'. no doubt that has been done here in the past ( remember claimholder shilling stocks of bankrupt companies for example ) , but i think it's rather rare. by and large discussion of stocks here is about the exchange of ideas, and discussion of the merits of said ideas. the day this isn't legal anymore we'll have arrived in a tyranny for sure. Date: Wed Dec 28 2005 11:51 trotsky (@bond market) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, over the past few weeks the bond bears got taken to the cleaners again, and you heard it here first. this will continue as long as everybody, their auntie, AND their dog think it's a good idea to be bearish in a secular bull market. recently, speculative net short positions in bond futures had reached a new record high. looking at a long term monthly bond chart, one sees an unbroken uptrend channel beginning at the early 80's lows. why would speculators all of a sudden be collectively able to call the top? that would be a first in the annals of speculating man.

To: ild who wrote (48253)	12/28/2005 4:59:29 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 110194

And another 6.19 ton deposit today, at the GLD ETF. 27 Dec 2005 7,967,037.85 247.80 4,011,009,198.88 28 Dec 2005 8,166,154.13 253.99 4,228,831,563.44 Based on the premium I predicted an additional deposit but did not have any way to determine if it would be 3 or 6 tons. Volume may provide a clue. Shorting and covering $50,000,000 means shorting 1 million shares. doable when volume is between 2 and 2.5 million. When volume is 4 and above broker/dealer participants can probably short 2 million shares to capture the premium.

To: ild who wrote (48253)	12/29/2005 4:56:44 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

GLD adds slightly more than 1.5 tons. Smallest increase I can recall. 28 Dec 2005 8,166,154.13 253.99 4,228,831,563.44 29 Dec 2005 8,215,932.52 255.54 4,213,491,208.39 Prior day's premium was .08% below the .10% I use to predict additions. Todays premium not yet released.

To: ild who wrote (48253)	12/30/2005 5:03:52 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Can you say seven tons? 29 Dec 2005 8,215,932.52 255.54 4,213,491,208.39 30 Dec 2005 8,464,821.69 263.28 4,341,125,179.91 Yes GLD received another 7 plus tons of physical gold today, Dec. 30, 2005. Wonder if deliveries of gold will continue even when premium is below .10% but higher than .08% or if this is just a year end trade? Think it might be year end related. Since markets will be closed until next Wed. it might be prudent to earn 4 cents a share rather than 5 cents when the choice is not between 4 and 5 but 4 cents and zero.