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To: Casaubon who wrote (43533)	12/27/2005 11:40:04 PM
From: jsinla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Your list is interesting in that it covers the range of electrical power generation only. There may be a potential crisis in electrical power generation, but this is not the major issue imo. Providing you are happy to stay where you are or travel relatively short distances and take your time over it, electrical power can provide those basics. The big issue is that there is as yet, and probably never will be, another fuel with the versatility, portability and power density of hydrocarbon derivatives. The most likely one by some accounts - hydrogen - is not strictly a fuel but an an energy carrier requiring more power to create it than it delivers and in any case is heavily hydrocarbon dependent. Given the inevitability of declining fossil fuel availability, the 30 year outlook for personal mobility, commercial transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, global trade is bleak at best, to say nothing of political and social upheavals. There is no room for blind optimism - ie something will happen and all will be well. Something will surely happen indeed, but likely not what any of us might surmise or hope for.

To: Casaubon who wrote (43533)	12/28/2005 12:55:57 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 116555

It is amazing how many more homes are being built today that are self sufficient. No water, heating or A/C bills.. Even somehow recycle 10 inches of rain a year in desert SW to take care of all water needs for the year..

To: Casaubon who wrote (43533)	12/28/2005 2:18:13 AM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Nuclear, 68,000 tons of uranium used today each year for 432 reactors around the world. France with 80 percent of her electricity production by nuclear, but with depleted mines. Canada uranium production at 12,000 tonnes from 6 mines, 2 of which have closed over the last decade. 8000 tonnes from Australia. Quite a bit from old nuclear warheads, a supply which will be exhausted in 6 years. Germany, no wind power sites left to exploit as wind energy has grown greatly over the last ten years. What percentage does wind provide for Germany? Fusion, in the 70's we had great programs in various universities; today there are hardy any viable fusion programs. The agreements for ITER have been reached this year, but this will bring nothing over the next 30 years. Remember I said that my time frame is 30 years. Solar? What do you have in mind? Thermal for heating shower water is fine. Garden variety PV is 8 percent efficient. Geothermal is in the noise, it is so small. "Geoelectrical and geomagnetic and as of yet unimagined". Right, now you are grasping at straws. Please give some real data rather than just list all the things we have heard about since the 70's oil crises. How about methane hydrates? Where are they being produced? How about ocean thermal gradients? Nothing from these. Ditto for tidal power. One is operating on Rance river. Where else do we have them?