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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (48321)	12/29/2005 1:05:10 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 13:32 trotsky (art vandila) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i have a slightly different view of the cause-effect vector. i think bonds ( government bonds that is ) will rally BECAUSE real estate will get into trouble. this is basically similar to the stock market collapse of 2000-2002, which also coincided with falling interest rates. typical of a deflationary era - attempts at reflation since then notwithstanding ( they're ultimately doomed to fail due to the fact that the debt-berg has grown even larger. global debt levels have roughly doubled over the past 5 years ) . Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 13:14 trotsky (Gspot@ANO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved while one can't be certain what the stock will do, one can be certain about one thing: it's cheap here. at around 70 cents per share the margin of safety is very comfortable imo. we're looking at big and very likely economically viable resources of PGMs after all, and not to forget, some of it in a JV with AngloPlats, an important imprimatur. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 13:11 trotsky (knapper@DROOY) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved anyone who bought DROOY at 50 cents in 1998 had a small gain of nearly 1,200% by mid 2002. it was in short an excellent recommendation, if a little early. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 12:42 trotsky (Knapper@housing) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i'm only referring to residential real estate - i have no opinion regarding agricultural land, except to say that i am bullish on ag commodities, so agricultural land should remain well supported if i'm right. the problem isn't only the sharp price increases and the massive speculative buying of houses and condos, it's also the big increase in supply the bubble has brought on and even more importantly, the enormous expansion in mortgage related credit. this is the Achilles heel of the bubble - i expect a lot of this debt to eventually go into default, and in the process damage the banking system ( or rather, the entire financial intermediation system, including non-bank purveyors of mortgage credit ) . there will of course be wider economic repercussions , since some 80% of the job growth recorded over the past 5 years is directly or indirectly tied to the housing bubble. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 12:30 trotsky (permabear) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "In most instances, when a market participant proclaims that the market they have been involved in is manipulated, they are really only saying that they have been a chump." amen. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 12:11 trotsky (Gspot@ANO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this stock is imo undervalued from a fundamental PoV. i just bought a little on account of the expectation that it has been held down due to tax loss selling and will begin to rise early next year. also, the chart looks bottomy. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 12:02 trotsky (Bleuler@housing) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "These often-overlooked changes are a major reason that most economists do not expect a broad drop in prices in 2006, even though many once-booming markets on the coasts have started weakening." first of all, when MOST economists believe something won't happen, it's almost a guarantee that it WILL happen, and secondly, in spite of the lowest mortgage rates in generations, housing affordability in the US is in fact at an all time low ( in some of the worst bubble regions, only 10% of all households could possibly afford to buy at current prices and interest rates ) . since over 30% of all buying over the past two years has been by speculators hoping for greater fools to show up, we could actually see massive price declines over the next few years - and contrary to conventional wisdom, those will probably coincide with falling interest rates ( a la Japan ) . Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 11:37 trotsky (Romanov, 9:31) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Most recently Calvf has been targeted, even a comment that it couldn't go back to $10. " i'm a big fan of DROOY and GSS at their current prices ( since it can be shown that they're undervalued, at least on a relative basis to their peers ) , but CALVF? i made a comment regarding the supposed 'value' of $2.66 per share that someone ascribed to it ( never mind $10 - that's an extraordinary pipe dream imo ) . this is simply nonsense from a fundamental PoV. what could possibly justify a market cap of over $1 billion for CALVF? this is not to say that it is necessarily a bad bet at 10 cents. in fact, it's probably a very good speculative buy at this level. but visions of the old highs must confront the reality of its huge and steadily increasing share float, and management's utter and consistent failure to deliver on its many promises. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 11:01 trotsky (FCX and the Indonesian military) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it's no secret ( never has been in fact ) that FCX is forced to pay for the military protection Indonesia affords the Grasberg mine. no big deal as far as i'm concerned, and certainly not news. Date: Thu Dec 29 2005 10:59 trotsky (Bleuler, 7:54) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Byrd amendment defeated? hallelujah! best news from Parasite Hill all year. everybody except the favored few who stole everybody else's money on account of this law has reason to rejoice.