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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (48357)	12/29/2005 6:20:37 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

<China's remarkable growth stops in its tracks.> No it doesn't -- but there will be an impact, no question about it, and as long as we are smoking the crack pipe they will sell us supplies and matches. But when we are washed up and in the alley there sky will not fall. INstead, 1.3 billion people will get on with their lives and perhaps in time even feel a little sorry for us. Perhaps they will offer us foreign AID <gg>

To: UncleBigs who wrote (48357)	12/29/2005 9:13:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

hello unclebigs, <<China needs to wean itself away from American overconsumption>> ... yes, but perhaps not until the glorious mine face is worked thoroughly, rich vein is mined out, gusher tapped empty, and the treasury bared. What precisely is the hurry? I subscribe to the belief that China will undergo a severe 1929 style econo-financial crisis, and perhaps even a 1989 type of socio-political crisis, or worse, but I also believe that perhaps these events will be simply road bumps, as similar events were in the past, on the road towards the mean after a 300 year accident - super cyclically speaking. Subsequent to any China crisis of anything short of nuclear winter, the infrastructure and factories remain, willing workers in place, and consumers ready. Only the monetary system requires reset. So, as someone countered on the thread that invoked "this time it is different" reasoning, and someone else countered in sarcasm in invoking same logic, perhaps this time is no different than all past times, as in an unstoppable movement toward the natural mean post-restructuring after 300 odd years accident. Events are rarely if ever different in any true and fundamental sense, a reasonable person may suspect. I dunno what material difference would be in the very biggest of pictures on GDP should a guy in Wang3Cup-ville wishes to upgrade from a 500 sqft apartment to 550, gets someone to build it, vs the same W3C making a widget of suitable value for J6P in San Diego. So, all in good time, in measured paces and guided dollops, until a balance is achieved, meaning equalization of cost and of revenue across the planet. Looking around the world, I see no particular reason for the USD to suddenly collapse in any sustaind fashion, nor the Euro/Yen to rise beyond where they already are, and then stay there. As for the RMB, a sustained rise is out of the question, for the moment, because the astute private folks will do the capital flight thing, buy houses in Thailand, hoard gold in Lichenstein, and perhaps even accumulate Canadian energy shares via on-line accounts. The 25-35% China savings rate people talk about, if allowed, will fly from the get-go, I believe. Bottom line, all officialdom are printing. The world is marching towards a monetary reset moment. What specifically sets off the reset during the process is much less important. What happens post-reset is a given, since the times are not different, this or any other time. So, we know what we know, to paraphrase a failing strategist. In all cases, perhaps accumulating physical gold is a fine idea, not so much because what we think we know, but more because of what we know we do not know. Chugs, J