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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (2842)	12/30/2005 3:08:36 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

"As China becomes the largest economy in the world" I don't think that is going to happen soon. No but by 2040 or 2050 it should. That is from projections I have seen multiple places derived from different economists by different methods. It seems like Alan Greenspan has alluded to this as well. we will be getting better at the same time. They might never surpass us in power, or if they do it might take a long time. My "very unlikely" statement referred to the next two or three decades. Give it a century or so and anything can happen. British citizens might have been saying that 100 years ago. Venetian citizens might have been saying it half a millennium ago. One thing I have observed is that things always seem to change, and that relationships change over time. "They cannot hone their strategies and tactics until they do." (fight a war.) Yes that is also a factor. "The real question is would they invade Taiwan prior to gaining military experience elsewhere?" What elsewheres do you have in mind? I don't have anywhere in mind, China is becoming more aggressive toward Japan and Taiwan. They would want to cut their teeth on something smaller and less likely to involve the US. The next logical step would be to fight a proxy war with client states so they could see how their weapon systems match up against ours. That could be on the Korean peninsula.