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To: Charles Tutt who wrote (63586)12/30/2005 1:36:00 PM
From: alydar  Respond to of 64865
 
Predictions For 2006

Sneak Peek 2006
Chris Kraeuter On Information Technology
12.27.05, 6:00 AM ET


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Flash: Forecasts For 2006

F u l l C o v e r a g e >




The Big Trend
Energy efficiency moves front and center in the computing cost equation. Data centers are holding back on expansions and upgrades not for a lack of money or space but for an inability to keep energy costs in check. Advanced Micro Devices (nyse: AMD - news - people ), Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ), IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ) and Sun Microsystems (nasdaq: SUNW - news - people ) all tout the energy efficiency of their chips, but look for complete systems from major vendors like IBM, Dell (nasdaq: DELL - news - people ) and Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ), as well as a host of specialized smaller vendors, to be revved and ramped in an effort to find out just how cool these boxes can really run.

The Unconventional Wisdom
People see a slow and steady migration of ad dollars underway from old media to new media, but there won’t be anything slow or steady about this monumental shift: This migration will happen faster and be larger than anyone has been bold enough to predict. Online ad havens like Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ), Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) and Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) will receive the bulk of the benefits. The only hitch: Ad effectiveness needs to improve; behavioral targeted ads finally come of age.

The Misplaced Assumption
That China and India are the place for cheap engineers. Offshoring cost savings won’t be as great as they have been in the past, but U.S. and European companies will continue with this misguided approach to locate inexpensive programming talent. The low-cost bar was set in India and China, but the Philippines and Russia have wrested this dubious distinction away. Next stop on the offshoring express train: Estonia and its Baltic cousins.

Watch List
-- Marc Benioff. Gets to really prove if his Salesforce.com (nyse: CRM - news - people ) can move beyond its niche of customer relationship management software into a software clearing house for a myriad of applications. Oracle (nasdaq: ORCL - news - people ), Microsoft and IBM have the company in their sights and aren’t willing to let it operate unchecked anymore.

The Bold Prediction
Thin client computing gets fat this year as more and more companies pull data and applications from employee computers--notebook or desktop--back into the network, enabling safer, faster, more flexible computing. Long a dream of data-center wonks, multiple technologies from the likes of VMWare, Advanced Micro Devices, IBM and Salesforce.com converge in 2006 to make this the year that virtual computing takes over the work landscape. Application processing on your puny computer be gone. Long live the power of the network!