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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (48445)12/30/2005 11:30:45 AM
From: chainik  Respond to of 110194
 
Hulbert

<As 2005 comes to a close, newsletter editors on balance are quite upbeat about the stock market and lukewarm about gold>

marketwatch.com



To: ild who wrote (48445)12/30/2005 12:41:33 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
ild,

I was somewhat "disappointed" with those numbers. Specifically, I was hoping the Primary Insurance Defaults would be up higher.

Now I can only guess. Could that number be stable because the spike in Oct was the result of the BK law change deadlines? Could it be Katrina forebearance is still postponing a number of defaults, albeit artificially?

My other observation is the shift of weight to the bulk side. As I understand, these are higher risk policies.

Ramsey



To: ild who wrote (48445)12/30/2005 12:46:03 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
Wow, great find! The slowdown in actual issuance may suggest tougher insuring standards, any thoughts???

Traditional applications yoy:
-5.45%
118,061 vs. 124,731

Traditional issued yoy:
-17.5%
86,294 vs 104,580

Defaults headed higher yoy:
50,653 vs 43,050


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