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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (48455)	12/30/2005 1:34:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

4. any attempt by individuals such as GST to raise the quality of the discussion into a higher level will immediately paint them into a pro-china anti-US corner. To me, it is as strange as drawing the conclusion that any bushbasher is automatically pro kerry, or at least a democrat. 5. finally, when I read articles by Andy Xie, Roach, J Rogers or my friend Jay, I typically "listen" and try to digest the information, hoping that will help me understand the complex issues a little better. Many, on the other hand, found it unnecessary because they already know everything they need to know and go right back to the position they have taken in point 2 above I am hardly anti-China and pro-US If anything I am the opposite if that I fully expect that China is the ascendant world power. Not only that but I was early in that belief, way back in 2000. Much of what I know about China comes from Xie, Roach, Yiwu, and others, in addition to reading articles. Xie is the perennial bear on China and I think (in conjunction with a slowdown in the US) he will eventually be correct. Looking further ahead, at some point China's internal demand will be huge. Right now we are still outsourcing jobs to China and China is still too dependent on the US. GST can believe what the hell he wants but those are enormous deflationary pressures. But he is correct, wages will eventually merge. But that will be by theirs slowly rising and ours slowly falling. Again that is deflationary pressure (in the US) whether he or anyone else sees it or not. It does not bode well for US consumption but it does bode well for increased consumption in China. I would not be surprised to see a war break out over this. In fact, it is likely that the War in Iraq is largely over oil and nothing else. But that failed IMO. GST has valid points. His belief is that he is the ONLY one with valid points. Everyone else is wrong but him. The funny thing is we agree more about China than disagree (at least looking at the long term). It seems we agree about the US long term as well. We do differ as to whether or not the affect on the US is deflationary or not, but that is not really about China per se. But as I said earlier, he seems to think several things that are wrong 1) He is the only one here qualified to speak about China 2) He thinks he knows what everyone thinks but I bet this post alone proves that idea wrong 3) He seems to think that China is immune to slowdowns from the US from now until eternity. I doubt that is how he really feels but that is sure how he comes across. At any rate I believe he underestimates the impact of a US slowdown on China over the near to mid-term. On that I think we find out soon enough. Finally, as it comes to Roach, I am wondering if he is more of a contrarian indicator than anything else. Remember his double dip recession theory. He held on to that idea forever. Then it was 50% chance of recession then 25%. Now he is not talking about a recession at all. Roach has given up on recession and calling for GDP of +3.5% next year. Look at his take on China. Worry worry worry worry - Capitulation: China is now self sustaining and not over-heated. Mish