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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (48498)	12/30/2005 4:48:09 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree that Bernanke will probably be forced to raise rates in March because of market perceptions: "A Fed rate hike at the March 28 meeting seems to be a virtual certainty. Should Ben Bernanke fail to raise rates during his first meeting, the bond market might just interpret the new central bank chief as a "dove," a moniker that would almost certainly send Treasury prices reeling." So I'm in the 4.75% camp after the March meeting. But I think the economy will be showing signs of slowing in March - if the housing slowdown is really here - and that the FED will have adequate cover to pause after March. I think 4.75% will be the top of this cycle ... and, over the last year, I've been one of the more aggressive posters saying the FED wouldn't stop until they reached a neutral rate.