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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (2860)	1/3/2006 2:29:07 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71588

"As China becomes the largest economy in the world" ... It is my assumption upon which I have based several investment decisions. I could be wrong, but the risk of it causing me substantial harm is low. Regardless of anything else, the demand for natural resources will increase as the Chinese population gains wealth. I'm not even sure about that. You have to project some serious growth out in to the future and I have my doubts that it will continue for another 4 or more decades. Even if it does China's GDP will have to go to a lot of people, who will probably by then be demanding and consuming more. Not that its not a serious potential threat but its far from a forgone conclusion that China will be the biggest economy by the middle of the century or by any time this century. I do project substantial growth for substantial period. China is mastering much and their economy is likely to grow. Also demographics seems to be conspiring to give China an advantage. I'm not saying that the US will be top dog forever, I'm just saying that China won't be top dog in 2030 and probably won't be for awhile after that, and that there is a chance it will never be. If it isn't China than it will be someone else eventually. Whether its 50 years, 100 years, or longer someone will eventually surpass the US. Good,because we will not. Immigration and the ready availability of natural resources made this country great, and has sustained it up till now. We have a current crop of politicians who refuse to allow new resource extraction, this puts us at a disadvantage from where would would otherwise be. China is the new target for educated people to emigrate to. I don't really see a good target for China, strong enough to be a real test but weak enough to not be too big of risk. Taiwan would be the one situation where nationalist concerns might prompt an invasion even though it wouldn't be in China's practical interests, but it would be hard for China to pull off, and esp. hard if it didn't want to wind up in possession of the ruins of what was once Taiwan, but rather something worth controlling. I agree with you. Times are very different, and China will have a much harder time invading its neighbors than big military powers hae in the past. Their best bet would be to find a proxy war to support. Did you read th piece about de Tocquville? Taiwan might need to be more concerned then they currently are about being invaded. (It was a WSJ Op/Ed, and is on this subject within the last couple weeks.)