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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (3025)	12/31/2005 5:29:07 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217818

switching physical gold is too troublesome ... i must think

To: energyplay who wrote (3025)	1/2/2006 1:29:28 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217818

EP, Actually the premium is increasing on ebay for the 2005 and 2006s already. There was a limit on exportation of these coins in the first place but even though Chinese dealers exported more without license, there are still a great many more coins in China than outside. With gold at $450 I bought 1oz 1983 gold pandas for $850 and now $515 and they're $1600: cgi.ebay.com The numismatic premium is increasing faster than the price of gold. So, for example, some of the 1991 and 1992 5 coin proof Panda sets with mintages 2500 and 5000 per year only allowed 1100 (of the 5000) to be exported. Plus, you have to consider the restrictions on ownership of gold in China caused coins to be inserted in jewelry (pendants etc) and thus there are very few undamaged coins around, except at Chez TJ of course! I can see the percentage premium dropping, that is until some of the 1.3bn Chinese want a few more of these sets, then all bets are off. Considering 1oz 'low' mintage US proof silver eagles, 30,000 coins, are selling for a premium of over 350x spot: cgi.ebay.com 1oz+1/2+1/4+1/10=1.85oz So $16.28 of silver sells for $5825 (350x) I understand the price is spot+numismatic premium based on scarcity, so in a PM bull market both the spot and the premium should rise. The 1982 and 1983 gold pandas, mintage 20,000, should at least be worth 100x, shouldn't they? At $500 spot now that would be $50,000 or in the future at $2000 spot perhaps $200,000? The sets, with mintage 5000, should be 200x and thus a $1500 set (1.9oz) is only 1.5x spot. It should be $300,000 and 760,000 in the future. Therefore the trade you suggest would be in shorting the US silver eagles and going long low mintage Pandas. Or, just buy low mintage Pandas. All it takes is a few wealthy coin collectors and this illiquid market will take off. Just imagine if Donald Trump or Richard Branson visits China to do some business and ends up wanting to buy $200m of these coins. OK, perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself and at $2000 the premium will never be 200x but 50x, or 1/7 the silver eagle, that is still a $1500 set with $900 of gold in it going for $190,000 when gold is $2000. The set will have $3800 of gold in it. This is a 'back up the truck' investment. JMHO. D