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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (43717)	1/1/2006 2:32:59 AM
From: regli	Respond to of 116555

Mish, Happy New Year to you and everybody on the board! Festive retail growth slower than in 2004 news.independent.co.uk By Tim Webb Published: 01 January 2006 High street sales grew even more slowly this Christmas than over the same period in 2004, according to Verdict, the retail consultancy. And 2005 as a whole saw the lowest growth in the sector for 20 years, said Verdict's managing director, Richard Hyman. The estimates will dent hopes that the January sales will help to rescue a quiet run-up to Christmas. The market analyst Footfall, which counts the number of shoppers passing through shops, reported an 8 per cent increase in the two days after Christmas compared with the same period a year earlier. SPSL, another retail information group, reported that almost a fifth more shoppers were out in force on Boxing Day compared with the previous year. Shares in Marks & Spencer broke through the 500p mark for the first time in over six years on hopes that retailers would enjoy a better Christmas. But Mr Hyman said that sales for last month would have a total value only 2.5 per cent higher than those in December 2004, which were 3.3 per cent higher than in December 2003. But, he said: "Retailers will not be as damaged this year because most have learnt the harsh lesson from last year and stocked accordingly. There is less stock to mark down in the post-Christmas sales." Mr Hyman said that total sales for 2005 were up a paltry 1.9 per cent compared with 2004, half the growth rate Verdict recorded for the previous year.

To: mishedlo who wrote (43717)	1/1/2006 1:07:08 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

Think I addressed the real issue in my WSE article on cost of funds (COF) and lending. wallstreetexaminer.com For some reasons (probably mostly the the lag effect of old time deposits rolling over), the COF has been running well below the Treasury bill and Fed funds rate. This helps mitigate, (at least for awhile) the negative effect of inversion. I don't think the repo market is quite the factor Noland says it is, nor is the Eurodollar market. In fact of total M3 of $10.216 trillion, EDs are only 433 billion, and repos 544 billion. research.stlouisfed.org research.stlouisfed.org In fact when you look at each component of total M3, the only areas that are growing are time deposits, research.stlouisfed.org research.stlouisfed.org which supports the "watch COF" thesis of my WSE article. And cheap rates on those will be fleeting as time goes on. Rates could stop rising right here, and COF will continue to rise as those older time deposits steadily mature and are replaced. It's very similiar to the ARMs reset tidal waves. Here's how M3 breaks down: repos: 544; growing a little ED: 433: flat in 05 Insitutional money markets: 1.152: growing some Large time deposits: 1.343: growing strongly Retail money markets: 719: flat small time deposits: 969: growing strongly savings deposits 3.600: flat currency 722: growthing some demand deposits: 321: flat total M3: 10.216; growing fairly strongly

To: mishedlo who wrote (43717)	1/1/2006 1:39:16 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

past year has provided convincing evidence that the protracted U.S. Bubble has become only more unwieldy> Think this is the key Noland phrase. Clearly Riskloves and Humpties have ramped up their trades, and activity. But sometimes we should take the opportunity to examine the kind of holes they've dug themselves into doing so. That was the purpose of my piece on ECC Capital. They are using huge untenable leverage, to make absurd loans, that will blow up in just a matter of time: months? weeks? even days? xanga.com I wonder what their portfolio late payments were for Dec? will be for Jan when the new resets, heating and XMAS bills arrive? The daisy chain outfits listed in their repo transactions are run by clerks, and quants. I'd like to be fly on the wall, when the deliquency reports start to arrive. There are many more ECC Caps out there, and plenty of other daisy chain players and enablers as well, all making stupid high risk loans for far too low return. And a final sort of general question, is this Risklove behavior liquidity? Answer: any "liquidity" is generated only by making untenable transactions, so seems like it's developing into the opposite to me.