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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (48608)	1/1/2006 11:50:17 PM
From: kris b	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"The Fed let the Nasdaq collapse by 80% before this reflation saved the economy" I am betting that FED will let/or be forced (market prevails) to let the housing bubble collapse up to 80%. Complete liquidation of all the toxics. Reflating after severe deflation might be a very tough act to perform, lasting years if not decades. The last time we went through this exercise it took II WW to get us out of the depression/deflation. Without it we would be in depression until the 1950s. Maybe the next time around we will need a war with China over the world resources to pull us out

To: UncleBigs who wrote (48608)	1/2/2006 10:43:04 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Data from what I consider one of the most talented old men cycle forcasters in the business. He says the K wave will not be defeated, he also gives this what he calls the coming deflationary collapse into at least into 2009/2010 to play out - and that is JUST TO REACH THE BOTTOM..........his current projected time is 3Q 2008. (of course this all depends on how insanely these clowns print money and buy the market with the funny money). IMO they are not stupid and if they over inflate they cause more problems for themselve then a deflation collapse to wipe out the debt. The DOW will end below 4000, possibly as low as 3000. At 3000 if the market shows signs of holding buy with both fists - we should see a massive rally back into the 6,000 area from there. Protect cash and have patience. He expected this reflation bounce and we here all know printing money is all that has led to these global rallies. The current cycle collapses year end 2006 - into 1Q 2007, I think the new FED chairman will fight tooth and nail right here and it is going to take longer for this next phase to begin. At best 2006 will be very difficult to know when the top is in. Also he thinks one more rally up could occur to new all time highs in the DOW - his target 11,752 to 12,000. (This rally could be the FEDs final attempt at reflation - which will fail......the B helicopter drop phase). Once it does commence it will be hard and fast down into the 6000 to 7000 level. Another reflation bounce lasting no time at all - going nowere (a false bottom) and then the final washout sometime in late 2007. This guy is not Precter and he is sharp. Never do I disclose whom he is - he has a small base of followers and I like it that way. West