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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking for Charity - 2006 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John McCarthy who wrote (68)	1/2/2006 12:58:56 PM
From: BulbaMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 592

PORTFOLIO CHANGE ALERT After sleeping on it, I've decided to pull AVNA from my portfolio. As I previously noted, its status as a biotech is questionable. I also remembered that a spin-off of one of its investments will soon take place (and there may be other spin-offs during the year), unnecessarily complicating contest record-keeping. To replace AVNA, I've chosen SOMX, a recent IPO on rkrw's list. Checking out SOMX, I noticed that one of its lead drugs is targeted at pathological gambling. Coincidentally, I'm currently reading a newly-published book, written by a friend, about his struggle with addictive gambling ("Six To Five Against" by Burt Dragin). Also, SOMX's CEO is Kenneth Cohen and I've always done well with companies headed by a Cohen (or a derivation such as Kahn; e.g., the Pokemon King). Thus, with so many factors in its favor (not least of which is its selection by legendary biotech stockpicker, rkrw), SOMX has got to be a lock. After the change, here's my revised 2006 Biotech Charity list: ARQL: 10%: 1,633.99 shares AXYX: 10%: 12,048.19 shares CRIS: 15%: 4,213.48 shares DVAX: 15%: 3,562.95 shares GNTA: 10%: 6,849.32 shares RNAI: 10%: 3,300.33 shares SOMX: 10%: 1,005.03 shares TELK: 10%: 588.58 shares VIAC: 10%: 1,779.36 shares HAPPY NEW YEAR! Bulba (John: Sorry for causing you extra work.)

To: John McCarthy who wrote (68)	1/2/2006 1:32:22 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 592

By my count, eight people have five stocks in their portfolios that are not shared with anybody else. And four people have four stocks that are not shared. Anybody remember their statistics--are those folks more likely to win? I think first you have to make an assumption that past winners Message 22018049 and folks with decent gains in past contests may indeed have some skill, so you adjust for that first, but then I would say that the eight with five independent stocks have a better chance. But I defer to somebody with a statistics text close at hand <g> Actually, in weather forecasting the consensus forecast is often a good one--but not the winning forecast. I think if you find consensus among skillful forecasters, then you have something good. Finding skillful forecasters is a trick too however--even among meteorologists, ha.