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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ahhaha who wrote (7201)1/3/2006 11:24:01 PM
From: rich evansRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 24758
 
What? A bear market is your prediction. Damn.

What do you think of Mish's preditions?

Mish's 2006 Predictions
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mish



To: ahhaha who wrote (7201)1/5/2006 9:12:09 PM
From: ahhahaRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 24758
 
Bear market, ahhaha?

It's very difficult to support such a claim because there is no market --- that is, there's no accurate generalization of what stocks are doing. It's unclear what the averages or indices represent. Within those collections one finds many stocks in bear trends or starting into them, and then again, one finds very strong bull trends with many emerging out of a base. No generalization like bull market or bear market can be applied. It's a market of stocks.

Nonetheless, the internal state of the QQQQ, SP500, and Russells, is about as bad as it gets. There's price appreciation against negative every trade flow. One small negative news event can send the market down hard, but a good news event won't send it up much.

What's most dangerous? Whatever is most extended and acts like tech stocks in '99: gold and silver. Even at $500 most golds are still unprofitable. And silver? It's junk metal. Who knows what it's worth.

Then there's O&G. I don't trust it. O&G at the raw commodity level has flat OI in a contra trend rally against the down side. Short covering. Global warming has a good side too.

What looks good? GM! Foreign stocks especially Jap and China. Various medical. Some tech. GOOG. But. But too many are vulnerable to rumor based wildfire selling. I saw Art Cashin looking at the door through the side of his eye today. He looked like he was getting ready to yell, "Fire".