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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (43808)	1/4/2006 12:15:38 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

The yield curve has not indicated a recession yet IMO. Perhaps in this screwy world we are in, it never does give that signal. But... Given that I expect one more hike and that to cause the rates to invert all across the curve, the signal will then be given IMO. I do not think it is "necessary" for the curve to invert to have a recession. There were one or 2 other times we had a recession without inversion, but not since the late 1950's. So... We probably do need inversion. Was that little blip enough? Probably not. We did have two instances of brief inversions that did not cause a recession. That is what the bulls seem to be counting on here. I do not buy it. There are too many people dismissing the yield curve including Greenspan and his track record at major points has been 100% wrong his entire career. A recession may be delayed until 2007, but bear in mind that because of hedonic distortions on the GDP will will probably be in a recession at +1.5% growth, possibly even +2% growth. Right now all we can say for sure is that a slowdown is very likely. Mish