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To: marginmike who wrote (127660)1/4/2006 9:35:23 AM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I agree with most of your points, except I don't anticipate more than one quarter of growth below 1% (ideally the 3rd quarter of 2006).

Sorry to see you get turned around on your SPX short. I've been on pins and needles long the past couple of weeks in two accounts, but the corrective nature of the decline, the drop into the end of December, and the SPX COT just starting to get short kept me long. Also, I figured I'd be able to exit on a .618 re-trace, and the virtural floor at QQQQ 41 this month also gave me a bit of a mental cushion (there's about 400,000 put contracts there).

I really thought Gold would drop back to $454 after the candle on the December monthly, but the yellow stuff waits for no one.



To: marginmike who wrote (127660)1/4/2006 1:04:41 PM
From: byhiselo  Respond to of 209892
 
agree with your general outlook except:

commodities bull? appears more a bloody mania to me...lets see

perhaps not mutually exclusive, but commodities going thru the roof would be conducive to worldwide economic growth?

cheers



To: marginmike who wrote (127660)1/5/2006 1:20:10 AM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I think you're right on.

Now, about those eggs and grits.

RE:"2)after a 20% quick hit to housing the prices will stabilize as they have in Europe and Australia"

After stabilization, another 20% drop?