Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (48732)	1/4/2006 2:02:01 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jan 04 2006 13:29 trotsky (frustrated@Kaplan) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved he's one of many sold-out bulls, and those are a bit like ex-smokers. they get almost militant in defense of their viewpoint. almost needless to say, this shtick about institutions and insiders selling is actually nonsense. i see zero evidence of that, on the contrary. institutions are underinvested in the gold sector, just as they were underinvested in oil in late '03 / early '04. they continue buying in as far as i can tell. if what one hears about asset allocation plans for 2006 is correct, there is a lot of catching up still left to do on the part of institutional investors. Kaplan has it exactly the wrong way around - the sellers are not institutions, but small traders, the group he generally disdains. this is what the outflows from the Rydex pm fund are telling us. on a more general note, when markets make new highs, you don't go guessing how high is too high. you simply use trailing stops instead. that way you don't end up on the sidelines during major moves, such as has happened to Kaplan recently ( and many other gooroos i might add ) . Date: Wed Jan 04 2006 12:50 trotsky (@the sentiment front) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved when reading various articles appearing at the usual suspect sites one might come to the conclusion that everybody is bullish on gold related investments. however, the quantitative sentiment data continue to tell an entirely different tale. they are saying that nobody really believes in this rally. for instance, the Rydex pm fund suffered a cash outflow of over $10 million yesterday alone - and cumulative cash flows into this fund continue to languish close to a 52 week low ( !! ) . at the same time, the XAU put/call open interest ratio has clocked yet another multi-month high as of yesterday, it now stands at a whopping 1.54. only 3% of all readings over the past 52 weeks have been higher according to Schaeffer Research. in short, this pm rally is attended by a highly unusual amount of skepticism on the public's part. this is a big surprise as it were, and i would consider so much skepticism in the face of strong technical action to be very bullish. Date: Wed Jan 04 2006 12:27 trotsky (as a rule) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i should not mention GSS in a positive light, in order to avoid being struck by the GSS curse. however, with the financing and the St. Jude acquisition under their belt, the potential for derailment news seems relatively low at present, so i'll risk it. ( knock on wood ) . it has a lot of catching up to do, and imo it will do exactly that. money flows in this stock are excellent, and have been excellent throughout the recent rather trying period. patience is advised...most of the immediate downside risk has been removed, which should refocus the market on the company's growth strategy, which is among the most convincing in the juniors/intermediate producers universe. Date: Wed Jan 04 2006 11:11 trotsky (@GOOG) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved how big a market cap does it 'deserve'? currently it sits at about 135 billion bucks,which means a trailing p/e of approx. 100. however, a handful of Wall Street guys discovered their love for the stock only this morning, and decided to award new 'price targets' , one at $550, the other at a slightly less modest $600 ( it'll be interesting to see if gold gets there first again ) . anyway, GOOG is actually not unfairly priced considering its track record and growth rate. however, this is also the issue that will eventually cause trouble, namely the growth rate. the bigger the company gets, the more difficult it will become to sustain it. an interesting aside, this is one of the few 'bubble stocks' that don't attract a whole lot of short selling. it'll take less than a day worth of its average trading volume to cover all outstanding shorts. this is highly unusual for a stock exhibiting such a parabolic price chart. Date: Fri Dec 30 2005 14:17 trotsky (@value stock hunt) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i'm constantly looking for stocks that represent value, most of the time you get to grab value when the news are bad. one recent discovery is PPTV. the co. makes imaging devices used in manufacturing control settings. it has had a bad year, as it transitioned to a new product line, lost a big customer, and changed its distribution model. why is it interesting? for one thing, only 3 million shares are outstanding. insiders hold 46% of these shares ( this ensures that management's interests are aligned with those of shareholders ) . with the transition phase complete, results should gradually improve in the course of next year. the recent bad earnings report combined with tax loss selling has created the opportunity to buy the stock at a multiyear low. as usual, it is not without risk ( DYODD, etc. ) , but in view of the tiny public float, any piece of good news could send the stock much higher. this is a case of a good risk/reward equation.