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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (2897)	1/5/2006 4:58:07 AM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

"demographics seems to be conspiring to give China an advantage." Which means? If you mean the country with the largest population is economically and militarily dominant, China should have run this planet for decades. Demographics give the country with the largest proportion of middle aged adults the advantage. When the population is too young you end up with stagflation like the Us experienced in the '70s. When it is too old you get a depression like the '30s. "China will have a much harder time invading its neighbors than big military powers have in the past." Talk to Vietnam, India, and Korea about that. They can exert influence without invading. "Taiwan might need to be more concerned then they currently are about being invaded." I thought you just said China wouldn't be bothering its neighbors. Taiwan is the only "hostile" neighboring country except Japan. Japan has too many international ties. China has been fairly successful in keeping Taiwan diplomatically isolated. In the 1950's, the rate of increase of the USSR's GDP was faster than that of the US. Eventually they hit a snag: central planning only works up to a point, then it becomes a hindrance, a drag, and requires too much prediction of the unknown and unknowable. It comes unglued. If your population is a geographic hodgepodge of nationalities (as was true of the USSR and is true of China), it comes unglued. Sometimes violently. We will see if this happens to China. USSR's demographics were not as favorable in the 70's as they are in China now.

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (2897)	1/6/2006 7:54:11 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 71588

China will have a much harder time invading its neighbors than big military powers hae in the past. Talk to Vietnam, India, and Korea about that. How about changing the statement to "China will have a much harder time successfully invading its neighbors..." The Vietnam invasion didn't work out so well. The Indian invasion didn't really accomplish anything. Korea restored the status quo at a huge cost to China. (But then they where fighting the US...) In the 1950's, the rate of increase of the USSR's GDP was faster than that of the US. Its easier to grow from a low base (depending on exactly what the reason is that the base is low). Eventually they hit a snag: central planning only works up to a point, then it becomes a hindrance, a drag, and requires too much prediction of the unknown and unknowable. All true. It comes unglued. If your population is a geographic hodgepodge of nationalities (as was true of the USSR and is true of China), it comes unglued. Sometimes violently. Quite possible true. OTOH China's economy is less centrally planned than the old USSR's was. It has allowed a lot of capitalism. Still at some point I think they are going to have to have more reform, certainly economically, but perhaps politically as well. China's government is probably nervous about the first and definitely reluctant to try the 2nd. Tim