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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (179306)	1/6/2006 11:46:05 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

As usual you make interesting points NL. What do you think about the loss of Sharon? I think it is huge. The only thing now that will work is compete separation and that means the extension of the wall to the other border with lebanon and syria. Whatever is one one side of the wall is israeli and the other is arab. Arab israelis will certainly continue to live in israel. The israeli settlers beyond the wall will have to leave or be slaughtered by the arabs. The wall should mirror 1967 borders to the extent possible with the exception of contiguous settlements and Jerusalem whose fate has been settled de facto. I dont know if what remains in the WB and Gaza can ever be a state. Perhaps arab states can finally take responsibility for the mess they made by not acceptiong UN partition in 1947. That decision, more than either any israeli bad acts or local pals intransigence back then, has been cause for the lionshare of the suffering for both jews and arabs in the area.

To: neolib who wrote (179306)	1/6/2006 12:09:31 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The Minister of Defense in Iraq is a Sunni. And there has been an outreach program in place by both the US and some elements of the Iraqi government to bring various Sunni leaders into the government. Of course, there are other elements who, as you correctly point out, have other agendas. But look Neo.. No doubt there is a Badr Corps/SCIRI influence in the current government which is perceived to represent Iranian interests. But there are also Iraqi nationalist influences represented amongst the Shi'a, particularly amongst Sistani's group, and even MAS (Muqtada Al Sadr), who seem to advocate an "Iraq for Iraqis" approach. Lots of diverse power centers in Iraq, all very delicately balanced, each pushing the envelope to increase their own power. I think we can agree on this. But if SCIRI/Badr Corps is as all-powerful as you make them out to be, then one has to ask why they haven't already seized control over Iraq and commenced a progrom against Sunnis? There's only one obvious reason.. The US presence. So as long as we maintain our role as honest broker only interested in seeing a democratic society emerge from Iraq, then we may avoid an outright civil war erupting. But the minute we leave, we'll guarantee that all sides will launch into a bloody civil war that will result in far more Iraqis deaths than have resulted in the past 3 years. That's the reality that I perceive. Our leaving Iraq right now would be tantamount to a boxing referee jumping out of the ring. The gloves would quickly come off... Hawk