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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking for Charity - 2006 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (232)	1/6/2006 8:19:02 PM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 592

Hi Texas <<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Anyway, would be interesting to have a tally of the various portfolios to see how they ended this first week and then we will be able to see if those stocks that acted so well this first week are the same ones that will make the end of year winner. I realize this is an "extra burden", but think it would be interesting...and NO! I don't expect to be leading this first week because it seems I have a few down for the week...ugh! <<<<<<<<<<<<<<< I will email you the file. (Excel file) You can TYPE IN CURRENT ACTUAL PRICES FOR ALL THE ENTRIES and post the results of your findings to the board. Fair deal? my email address is decaid@yahoo.com regards, John

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (232)	1/7/2006 3:07:35 PM
From: Doc Bones	Respond to of 592

The Chill of January's Crystal Ball Personally, I think stocks went up this week to reward manny for being a good sport and switching from short to a long portfolio. Thanks for doing that manny! ;-) Doc Slow Month Could Be Harbinger, But Weak December Brings Hope; Talking Bonds at the Ski Lift By E.S. BROWNING Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL January 3, 2006; Page C1 As goes January, so goes the year. That is making some investors nervous. The problem is that the stock market is in the doldrums again. The current period -- December and January -- is supposed to be the strongest of the year for stocks. But December was weak, and the fear is that if the market stays weak in January, it could portend another miserable year for the major indexes. Last year, for example, the Dow industrials fell 1.7% in first five days of January and were down 2.7% for the full month. The rest of the year was mostly like water torture. The historical experience suggests that investors have reason to worry -- but also reason to relax a bit. First, the reason to relax: A weak end to December often means good news for January. In the past, January has been stronger after the Dow industrials fell in the last five days of December than after it rose on those days. Since 1900, the blue-chip average has risen in January 76% of the time after slumping at the end of December. But after rising at the end of December, the index has followed with a January gain only 60% of the time, according to a study done for The Wall Street Journal by Ned Davis Research. But January had better be good, because, unlike the end of December, the start of the year is a strong predictor of what follows. When January's first five days have been down -- again, going back to the start of the last century -- the chance of an above-average finish to the year was just 43%. If the first five days were up, the chance of an above-average finish rose to 55%. The full month of January is an even stronger indicator. If January is up, the next 11 months show an average gain of 7.5%, more than the 6.1% average for that period. If January is down, the average performance for the rest of the year is just 3.74%. A January gain leads to an above-average rest of the year 61% of the time. After a January decline, the rest of the year is above average only 34% of the time. Right now, the mood on Wall Street is grumpy, because investors got coal in their year-end stockings. The Dow industrials fell 1.6% in the last five days of the year, erasing the year's gains. The decline left them down 0.8% for December and 0.6% for 2005 -- the smallest annual percentage move in either direction in nearly eight decades. <snip>