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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (48959)	1/7/2006 3:18:26 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 110194

Thanks. Panic buying would lead to bigger premiums. But since 1 tenth of one percent is not a big premium, I tend to think that premiums reflect just a slightly greater desire to buy than to sell. We will never see big premiums because the contractual arrangement with participant brokers leads them to capture even small premiums. Where I think you are on to something, that we have not yet seen is the fact that true panic buying should/could show up in the premium discount data. I think it could be detected not buy the size of the premium, which I maintain will be captured, even intra day, but rather by a premium sufficient to produce deliveries day after day after day. One might choose to notice the daily adds rather than the premium, but it will be the premium that produced the add. To build further upon your point, is the fact that there have been a few days of consecutive adds during the last 30 days and one might consider them at least close to panic buying.