LG, after the strong move up last week, I was anticipating a couple day consolidation prior to another attempt at an advance.
The SPX, while in play with that line at 1290, also has the 1316 May 2001 pivot high to test. I could easily see it moving up to give a fake-out break-out prior to the end of the month.
Overall, I think this week may end up frustrating for bulls and bears. We normally consolidate with an upward bias after a big white candle like we had last week
I'm still looking for things like the ADX-14 on the daily SPX to have the -d hit the 10 level, a place where we seem to get good turns.
stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyiay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b50!b200!a1171!f][vc60][ila12,26,9!lh5,5!li10,10!lp14,3,3!ll14!lo14!lb14!le5,10,1!lh89,34!lh45,17!li180,68!lp3,2,2!lb5][J12577505,Y]&pref=G
I still like July 2005 as a proxy for this move. Look how the WLSH compares on the daily now with the move out of the July lows:
stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyiay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b50!b200!a1171!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1!Lh89,34!Lh45,17!Li180,68!Lp3,2,2!Lb5]&pref=G
Finally, I'm looking for the VIX to hit 10.50 prior to a turn to complete an inverse H&S bottom on that indicator:
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[pb50!b200!d20,2!f][iub14!lb5!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9!li10,10!lh5,5!ll14][J11208988,Y]&pref=G
I agree about the risk / reward here being slanted towards closing longs. I think an upside break of 1317 SPX could be bought and made profitable with a stop at 1316. Prudent traders would be wise to pick an entry that's right at resistance or support. |
