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Strategies & Market Trends : US Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gpowell who wrote (25)	5/29/2008 12:14:04 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97

Thus, for the most part this thread sees very little chance of a housing meltdown. However, it is evident from the charts that house prices are probably fully adjusted to low inflation and the real estate holding demands of households. Consequently, we should expect to see the end of near double digit annual increases in aggregate home prices. And thus, any further or ongoing speculative activity in housing predicated on the assumption of double digit price appreciation would seem to be prone to loss. Well, we're now that 2 and 1/2 years has elapsed from this post how did we do? We predicted any further speculative activity in real estate would be prone to loss and that, no doubt, was correct. But as for "little chance of a housing meltdown" how did that prediction do? Pretty good actually. The current drop in housing is well inline with previous retractions. In fact in an interesting "coincidence" the latest peak in housing prices is exactly on trend with ALL previous peaks in housing since 1952.