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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (22048)	1/10/2006 10:20:00 AM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 207832

I'm not getting what I want yet. It looked like some early buy-the-dip. I need to leave my desk and expect to put in some low-ball bids. Be back before the close.

To: HairBall who wrote (22048)	1/10/2006 10:36:36 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 207832

LG, there are several things in play here. Obviously the Fed must be completely freaking out about the handover to Bernanke, or it wouldn't be pumping up M3 to levels more reminscent Germany in the 20's than the Fed in the 21st century. There has been some kind of crisis in the aftermath of the past several handovers, with the 87 crash being the most recent (Greenspan taking over from Volker). The lag time from the Y2K pump to the peak in March 2005 was about 11-weeks, but the peak was 5-weeks after the yield curve inverted in early Feb. 2000. That may be a key clue to watch. The yield curve inverted (2-year and 10-year t-bills, and even the 6-month as well now) in late December. 5-weeks takes us to Jan. 31st. There's a lot converging on that date. The Fed may also be front running a change in the language to neutral in response to the yield curve inversion. Either way, I think the money pump may result in a throw-over move that won't get too far away from us for the reasons mentioned. We'll see.