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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (49391)	1/11/2006 7:55:13 AM
From: basho	Respond to of 110194

Even though I follow them reasonably closely, I'm not sure any monetary aggregates will necessarily provide much of a warning. Given that everything is now based on perceptions, the turn could be sudden and violent. There's a chance that at some point all data will lag and that the Fed too will be scrambling just to understand, much less act appropriately. Whatever that might mean. Something else I try to keep in mind is that the Fed has only been able to give the appearance of being at least moderately responsible in recent years because FCBs have indirectly done the serious monetising. Basically it's an unbelievable mess. Still, as Keynes said (one of his few useful dictums in my view): "The markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent". Fighting this monster, as I've done far more often than a sensible man should, is a dangerous business. I think Tommaso's straightforward plan is probably about right.