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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (127958)	1/11/2006 1:55:17 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

non ewave question; how to guess targets on something like this:http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=VYE.C&num1=17&cobrand=&mode=stock

To: Shack who wrote (127958)	1/12/2006 5:44:22 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Yeah, I worry so much I could probably singlehandedly propel the markets higher... -g. Swenlin offers this brief overview. Sorry if it's is a repeat. decisionpoint.com

To: Shack who wrote (127958)	1/12/2006 6:30:49 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Speaking of blogs..... an overview of current counts, of sorts: yelnick.typepad.com ...Looking back, market historians may compare this period to another seven year period, 1966 - 1973, when the Dow touched 1K in '66, '68 and '73 before dropping.... After a major drop as in 2000-2002, the Wave Principle expects a reversal, a wave B or 2 back up - and often to new highs. The bullishness in the wave B is often more euphoric than in the prior bubble top, since back then we couldn't quite believe our good fortune, but now having cleverly caught the bottom we were more convinced that this time the bull was real and lasting. At some point, the market needs to reveal its character - a bullish fake-out in a wave B, or a true bull market? That moment is coming, and seems likely to be in 2006, but not quite yet. Let's review the wave counts of the leading Elliotticians to see why. Prechter saw this market as developing as a triangle, and late last year predicted that the Dow would spike up over 11k in a final burst of bullish enthusiasm. Typically triangles like the one we were in end with a spike out of the triangle trading range, before reversing direction. Many of the comments to this blog wondered if Prechter had turned bullish. Have no doubts, he hadn't. He does not, however, think the spike is over quite yet. Technical indicators are not giving a clear signal, but his best prediction is that we continue over 11k for a bit longer and a bit farther, say Dow11180. We might even bop around 11k for another 6 months, although he sees this spike as maturing right now faster than that. Neely has updated his count, and it is quite refreshing to see how he is willing to modify his short-term views while holding on to the bigger picture. He had thought that the initial pop over 11K would not lead to a quick run up, but a repeated series of tests over several days, and that is what has happened so far. He sees soon a stronger and longer run-up occurring, but warns that eventually 2006 will be a down year. Whether that correction is over fast or continues for up to three years is unclear, but he sees a strong bull run after that. This must be considered the nominal view, the most likely scenario. We are in the mid-year of the most predictable stock market pattern, the four-year Presidential re-election cycle. Typically the market will begin to correct in the later half of this year, and continue into 2007; then the engine of re-election will heat up and the economy will be pumped through the 2008 election and beyond. Quite a nice bull run from 2007-2009, it could be. Zoran has not yet opined - we will wait for his weekly analysis. Mitch Meana of Brainfood put out an initial Dow 11K warning, that the spike could lead to a quick drop; but as the market developed he pulled the warning and updated his analysis. A good ewave analyst he is, and worth reading. While this 11K market is taking a step back for every two forward, it is showing signs of accumulation of stock positions, a bullish sign. His advice is to let it run, as the wave pattern and surrounding technical indicators suggest the stairstep upwards will continue. Fibonacciman has been making great timing calls for the past year, and his methods say a serious pullback is in store, perhaps for as early as tomorrow. This is not the end of the stairstep up, just a deeper drop than we have had for the past few days. Other pundits seem to be coalescing around Dow12.4K and SP1312 before this ends; and a Nasdaq that will finally make a Fibonacci 38% retrace up to around Naz2800. .....