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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (49472)	1/11/2006 2:56:36 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

<"The downside risks to the economy reside largely within the housing sector." Seiders painted a rather scary picture of what could happen if speculators pull out of the market as quickly as they swooped in. Such a scenario could "provoke sizeable house-price declines, cut into housing equity and provoke a snapback in the personal savings rate that would seriously cut consumer spending," he told the convention.> It's really a question of to what extent speculator implosion effects the rest of the local housing markets. Will headline making news of collapsing prices in high end condos effect local single family communities with mostly long time owner occupied families that by themselves might only take a modest plunge this next cycle? I'll bet some condo markets like Miami and San Diego take a 50-60% haircut easy. The bigger question is will median single family that is the much bigger driver of multiplier effect of household spending dive 10-15% or will it be 30-40%?