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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FiveFour who wrote (49511)	1/11/2006 11:12:35 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

it would be helpful if you could provide some sort of time line, are you talking about 1 year, 1 decade, or what? A time line is not possible. Nor can you predict the top of this rally. Nor could anyone predict the top of the Naz rally in 2000. Even someone who was as close as 1999 saw the naz go from 4000 to 5000. Things happens. That said, I think we are at the END of things happening. Far brighter minds than I actually predicted what is happening now. They did not see it getting this out of hand but they predicted a decline in 2000 and an echo bubble in housing. I suggest The Dollar Crisis by Duncan amazon.com Note, I will make aout 20 cents or so if you buy the book by clicking on that link. If you rather Amazon get that 20 cents buy straight from them, or not at all, or whatever. All I can say is "shit happens" No one can say when or how this insanity ends, all we can say is that it WILL end. That said, given that I believe housing is "the bubble of last resort" (well perhaps gold is but that will not do the economy one bit of good) we are at the cusp right now. But.... Japan fell then went sideways for years before it crashed. There is a strong Ewave case that we do the same. Thus, even calling a top, does not guarantee success with PUTs on the downside. Personally I THINK we are more or less following the UK on about a 9-12 month lag. I also think the US hits a recession within 12-15 months. The treasury market is suggesting the latter and the yield curve, the UK, US housing, and consumer credit are what to watch. Fair enough? Mish