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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (17137)	1/12/2006 2:40:35 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I was basing my number on approx $300B in semi sales in 2007 or 2008. 20% of that devoted to capex would be $60B, of which AMAT could receive about 25% of that. Assuming a 18% net income rate, we would get about $1.62 per share. Add a 35 multiple and you get $57......a smaller multiple would put you in the 40's. All of these numbers are conjecture at this point, but not too far removed from becoming reality if we can have a few really good years of semi sales. And even if we were to hit $300B, we could easily see a capex ratio greater than 20%, being that it has been depressed for several years. 30020%25%18%=2.7B/1.66=$1.62 Change the numbers a hair and you get...... 31022%25%20%=3.41B/1.66=$2.05 Tag a 30 PE to that, and conceivably you could hit $60. I believe that once the pendulum swings the other way, nobody here will believe what they see......just MHO