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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FiveFour who wrote (49668)	1/12/2006 11:06:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

what about: how do we know when we have arrived at deflation, i.e., what is the measurement? Good question: Oddly enough, the FED hid one of the better measures. Conspiracy theorists think the FED stopped publishing M3 because it is ready to explode. I think they did it for 1 of 2 reasons. 1) They really do think it is useless 2) It is ready to implode Note: they might have done it for reason #1 even if #2 is true. It will be hard to time even with that measure. One will have to look at interest rates, housing prices, bankruptcies, asset prices, austrian money supply, M2, consumer credit, etc. Some of those could get distorted as the FED will fight it. The one thing NOT to look at is energy prices even though I expect them to drop. Because the FED will fight it, expect a long long drawn out war. Mish