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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (3319)	1/14/2006 12:06:40 AM
From: Crabbe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219505

Exactly what will spreading the capital more evenly do to maintain employment? How will spreading capital slow the advance of computer intelligence? How will spreading capital stop "lights out fabs" or other lights out manufacturing? Manufacturing and farming no longer matter in this problem the % of Americans (my Concern) or world wide workers involved in either is already unimportant, especially in America but soon to follow world wide. Today and historically there are 4 job categories. Farming and natural resources, Manufacturing, Office and government, Services. Farming and natural resources (mining, timber, etc) is already almost eliminated as a significant source of Jobs. Manufacturing has declined (in the USA ) to 40% of its peak. Office and Government is declining, Service is still increasing. Unfortunately for American workers, Services is the bottom of the pay scale. Also, lets talk about office. Today if most of your work is on a computer, your job can be outsourced. Today if you telecommute, your job can be outsourced. Today if you fill any back office job, your job can be outsourced. Today many reletively time consuming tasks on your computer, tommorrow beter programming - they will be eliminated. Government and Services seem to be the only jobs left, and they are both still increasing as sources of employment. So what jobs seem to have the longest expectation of being around. Medical: medical seems to me to be in about the same possition that computers were in in 1960, when a business then added new computers, they doubled their back office workers. This continued through the 1980's and workforces started dropping only after the PC matured to a really useful business tool. Medical today is just gaining better and better diagnostic ability with the advent of new equipment and it requires additional staff to interpret this data. In twenty or thirty years that will probably reverse the equipment will give definitive diagnose instead of data that needs interpretation. Teaching: Teaching will continue to expand even while results drop. Can I coin a new term. We all hear iof Socialized Medicine and consider it bad. Well we have Socialized Education, and YES it is BAD. Retail: Some one has to distribute goods no matter what we use as a medium of exchange. Government: If for no other reason politicians and bureaucrats need to feel useful and powerful so a full stable of employees pushing bits around computer screens seem inevitable. r