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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17182)	1/13/2006 12:22:07 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...then there really was no cycle at all." There is NO a priori reason that semi equip sales should be cyclical. In a modestly growing world economy, semis and semi-equips should grow less modestly. Your chart shows caution. After a relatively low, flat period, there is a short term blip up. This is the semi makers waiting until capacity is pretty much gone before ordering more in significant quanta. If you look at revenue forecasts for semis and semi-equips, you see that the forecasts for the year just get close about October and November. Yet, these guys can pinpoint order momentum in what your chart shows to be a very flat environment. When ASML hit $22.50, I looked at Bollinger Bands and RSI and saw an opportunity for covered calls. I am too old to bother. I think all the rate change forecasts are because the industry needs recommendations based on expensive fundamental analysis rather than simple charts anyone can look at. Also, they like to pretend they aim their research at investors, when they really want to create and control a herd of traders.