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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (49728)	1/13/2006 5:34:17 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Well, of course oil at $64, inverted curve, 13 tightening under the belt all look very bullish to me. I'm going all in GOOG and AAPL calls. -G- EDIT: Commercials still have large short position and small specs are widely bullish. softwarenorth.net softwarenorth.net

To: chainik who wrote (49728)	1/14/2006 9:59:13 AM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

With 15% money supply growth (inflation), the stock market has to increase 15% per year just to stay flat on a real basis, so shorting it means swimming against a current of the flood of new money, although it can be done if one takes profits very quickly. Inflation in itself is good for nominal value of stock indexes, the market is hurt by inflation only to the extent that bond yields increase as a result of high inflation, as they usually do ( usually, but not this time) We are in uncharted territory. The stock market is detached from reality, the only reason it is not correcting is out of control M3 growth. For the proof, just look at the performance of stocks that issue earnings warnings. Right after a drop they start going up and in many cases they exceed the levels before the warning in a matter of weeks. Simply, SP500 program buying lifts all stocks, except the ones that issue a warning that day. The next day,the warning is "in the price" and the stock is free to rise as a result of program buying.