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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sixty2nds who wrote (3553)	1/13/2006 9:03:10 PM
From: sixty2nds	Respond to of 8420

13:34 Color on Samsung CapEx spending Deutsche Bank notes that Samsung projected 2006 semiconductor capital spending at 5.63T KRW (~ $5.72 bln), ~5% below their expectation of roughly $6 bln. The firm anticipates that currency conversion rates could cause this present number to creep upwards through the year. They expect this spending to be front end loaded with a substantial majority occurring in 1H06. Firm says this is consistent with their prior view, and does not negatively bias their 2006 outlook. The firm says a decreasing y/y capital spending number will negatively impact stocks in the immediate term, as they believe the broader expectation for Samsung's semi CapEx was closer to flat y/y. Stocks of companies most exposed to Samsung spending include AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, VSEA, MTSN and RTEC. Samsung's modest shortfall to their expectations does not appreciably impact their capital spending forecast for 2006. The firm is projecting 5% to 6% CapEx growth in 2006, with wafer fab equipment spending growth closer to 10%. They expect a front-end equipment orders growth rate profile that would peak in 1H06, with absolute orders that would likely peak toward midyear or early 2H06. The firm also expects revenue to follow this profile with approx a one qrt lag, but with a dampened magnitude. Firm says aside from very large near term orders from Samsung and TSMC, channel checks indicate sizable 1H06 orders from Powerchip, SMIC, UMC, and Toshiba.

To: sixty2nds who wrote (3553)	1/14/2006 8:02:54 AM
From: Sirius_Rich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

Caris & Company Equity Research analyst Susan Kalla upgraded Sirius Satellite Radio to "buy" from "above average" and raised the price target and earnings estimates based on expectations for better-than-expected subscriber additions in fiscal first quarter 2006. "In our view, the stock’s pull-back in anticipation of potential dilution from Stern’s sale of shares represents a buying opportunity," wrote the analyst in a research note Friday. Sirius (Nasdaq: SIRI - news - people ) shares have been under pressure following in-line fiscal fourth-quarter 2005 net subscriber additions and the issuance of stock to Howard Stern, both of which were announced in the past two weeks. The company issued and registered 34 million shares, worth more than $200 million, to Stern and his agent this week. Sirius agreed in Stern's October 2004 employment contract to deliver the stock to him if the company hit agreed upon subscriber targets. "While it is conceivable that Stern would sell some shares to cover his multimillion dollar tax bill on the shares, it is unlikely in our opinion that he would unload all of the shares in the short run since the company is in a high growth phase where stock returns are likely to be the highest and perhaps may generate higher returns than other investment options," said Kalla. The analyst argued Sirius shares should trade like software companies with recurring revenues simliar to Sirius' subscription revenues. The stock currently trades in-line with Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) and Qualcomm (nasdaq: QCOM - news - people ) on an enterprise value-to-2007 sales basis, the analyst said. Kalla believes Sirius should trade at a premium to its software peers since its growth rate is higher, expecting revenues to double in 2007, compared with revenue growth of about 20% to 30% for its peers. In 2008, Sirius revenue growth could be 60% year-over-year, she said, indicating "a continued buoyant stock." Kalla raised her 2006 year-end subscriber additions estimate for Sirius to 4.1 million from 4 million. She increased first-quarter and fiscal 2006 revenue estimates to $114 million and $610 million, respectively, from $113 million and $600 million.