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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (17206)	1/15/2006 3:30:52 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

I thought Samsung's 8% reduction in Capex is not a big indicator of the industry in general Samsung talked improving Capex efficiency and they gave an example (in particular $ spent for buildings vs $ for equipment); if a fab is running at 50k wafers/month they will "cram in" additional capacity and extend it to 60K; they are trying to save $ on brick and mortar. And if one applies this to 3 to 5 fabs you end up with one additional fab while spending little on brick and mortar. (that's somewhat different what the capex cut headline implies). Samsung's total capacity was quoted 800k/month!!! Samsung spending will be heavily frontend (CY)loaded (of course the sell side will now retreat from its no upturn strategy/tactics to a cycle peak/order growth slowing scenario). Vista is expected to be big driver with memory requirements between 1 and 2 Gb Fab expansion: Samsung Fab 14 (100% NAND) from 30k wfr/month to 60 - 70K wfr/month ASAP (1H 2006; that's probably driving strong order growth in first half) Samsung Fab 15 is currently under construction and will start production 8/1/2006 with 15 to 20K wfr/month by end of the year (2H 2006) So we should see a pretty strong uptick in orders in Q1; question is whether they look strictly at order growth (which really does not make sense as Gottfried pointed out) or are they going to look at overall earnings potential for the next up cycle? Short interest has been relatively low which could imply we are seeing "real" buying opposite to short sellers buying. Also option ex could provide some hints - shorts seem to be banking on options to expire worthless.

To: robert b furman who wrote (17206)	1/15/2006 8:33:39 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 25522

DRAM prices are up. Global DRAM Pricing Report Online staff -- Electronic News, 1/13/2006 North America Sources said on Thursday, January 12 that some price correction was being observed in a few areas, mainly DDR 256Mb 400Mhz. The DDR spec 400 spot price range on discrete chips was adjusted up by 35 cents/CHP on the low end and 10 cents/CHP on the high in response to market input. Demand for DDR2 chips and modules was said to be experiencing a boost. Sources suggested the small spike was based upon older generation materials finally getting absorbed into the consumer market and consumer upgrades. Traders said spot trading for most chips was brisk on both the US West Coast and the East Coast. NAND Flash prices were said in a downtrend as the products become more common in the consumer market. However, sources anticipated growing demand for NAND due to this technology moving strongly into numerous mainline consumer products while DRAM applications were confined to computer uses. Asia Pacific Prices of first-tier DDR 266/333/400 32x8 components were stable for the fourth consecutive day at $2.40/$2.40/$2.50/chip amid thin trades. Meanwhile, offers of DDR 400 64x8 types were at $4.55/chip, with trades concluded within the $4.35-$4.55/chip level, unchanged from yesterday. On the other hand, prices of DDR2 533 64x8 components were up 8 cents/chip to $4.55/chip due to tight supply. Europe No changes were heard on the DRAM market on Friday, with prices remaining within the above quoted ranges. Some comment that $40/module may be the top price for 512MB DDR 400 modules. Demand is good and discussion continues as to whether the increase was triggered by speculative buying or higher end-user demand. Some say it is a mixture of the two. Players report that the pick up in demand has led to shortages of some products, particularly 512MB DDR 400s. reed-electronics.com