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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (128138)	1/16/2006 10:26:36 AM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Shack, the reason the inversion does matter is because every single time the 2-year and 10-year have inverted, an 'earnings recession' has occured. When earnings contract, it is unlikely valuation multiples will expand. The end result should be a market correction. The inversion gives some clarity to the current market situation. Since we are at inflection points in many of the indices, the historic patterns of the inversion combined with the 4-year presidential mid-term cycle ought to keep the market from taking off until at least the end of the 3rd quarter. I do not have a count for what I am anticipating, but I am giving it my preferred until it is proven otherwise. There is a cycle low due in the end of Feb/early March. That may be very close to SPX 1200 and even within 30-SPX points of a low I anticipate later in 2006. I am open to new highs all the way up to and including Jan. 31st. After that I do not think we'll see new highs again until late 2006. The highs I anticipate in 2007-2008 will include 1560 SPX and 2424 NDX. Oh, and the NDX gets a nearly 50% haircut after that in 2009 to maybe 1348 or so <G>. So it is said. So let it be done <G>