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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: thames_sider who wrote (9145)	1/17/2006 11:19:15 AM
From: KLP	Respond to of 541695

It's definitely a puzzle to me, and I'm sure all of us, as well. I can't believe that the majority of influential Persians actually support his apparent aims, I think he's been left in power as a threat to others...

To: thames_sider who wrote (9145)	1/17/2006 7:20:09 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 541695

If MAD kept the US and USSR from each other's throats for 30 years, do you think it might work in the ME It might. I think it is a bit less likely to do so in the ME, considering the conflict and intolerence in the area. I've read that Pakistan and India came a lot closer than most people realize to nukeing each other, and the ME strikes me as even less stable. But it might wind up being the only available choice. Iran's nuclear program is not Osirak, it can't be set back a decade or more by a 15 plane raid, and maybe not by a 1000 plane air campaign. Invasion doesn't seem to make a lot of sense for multiple reasons. Internal overthrow of the Mullahs seems unlikely, esp. in the relatively short run, and even if it does happen some, perhaps many, of the Mullahs opponents support getting nuclear weapons. Hopefully they would at least be more reasonable about actual use of nukes than Ahmadinejad's and other Iranian leaders comment's have indicate they might be. I can't believe that the majority of influential Persians actually support his apparent aims Hopefully not. Probably not. I agree with you that it is unlikely. But is he really just a figurehead, or does he have real power despite being more extreme then the majority of Iran's more influential people? And if he is, is he a figurehead for a person or group of people with similar ideas? It doesn't necessarily take "the majority of influential Persians" to launch a strike with some future Iranian nuclear arsenal. I think that Iran will not just nuke Israel with a bolt out the blue strike for no reason other than their hatred of Israel and the type of every day events that happen in the ME. But the risk that they will do so is not insignificant. More likely a strike could happen in response to some sort of escalating crisis. Tim