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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (9149)	1/17/2006 7:50:10 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 541687

Me, neither. If I ran a little country, I'd go for it, too. Really? I'm not so sure I would. An effective nuclear program would be much cheaper than a large modern conventional force would be, but it would still be expensive, not only in its direct cost but in relations with other countries, who will be more likely to be scared and/or angry, more likely to try a pre-emptive attack, and less likely to have peaceful harmonious and profitable relationships with your country. Iran at least has oil (no one is going to embargo or blockade its exports), and size (it really isn't a little country, even if it isn't a giant). North Korea evaded a strike to take out its nuclear ability before it had nukes partially by stealth and partially by holding Seoul hostage (and by spending an enormous percentage of the countries meager wealth on conventional forces to be able to do so). Israel evaded severe repercussions partially by stealth, partially by being seen as no threat to the most powerful countries in the world and little threat to their interests, and partially by US patronage. Israel also probably has some of the best reasons to go for nukes out of any of the little countries with nukes or programs to get them. But for most countries it doesn't make a lot of sense. It brings poor results for most. North Korea may get some slight measure of deference and a larger measure of deterrence through its program, but it loses out on a lot from the cost of this program (esp. when combined with the crushing cost of the conventional military) and other countries negative reaction to it. Other than Israel (and even here some people question the benefit) I can't see a small country that has really benefited from a nuclear weapons program. Tim