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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TimbaBear who wrote (44649)1/17/2006 5:13:16 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
<<<Housing due to the speculative nature of the last few years, high leveraging and rising rates will experience a contraction initially and then it depends on how bad the currency debasement gets. The worse the debasement, the more likely that housing will reach a plateau and perhaps even rise from there.>>>

Another big difference between RE and hard commodities is that it's easy to build new RE. Don't you think that the builders will continue to build more and more houses until supply and demand (real, not speculative) will reach a balance? More general question: do houses have to be expensive?



To: TimbaBear who wrote (44649)1/17/2006 5:34:25 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Timba house price can not rise over the long haul if wages for the masses do not go up.

Things were OK as long as prices kept going up.
Equity extraction supported consumption and jobs.

A decline will take that away and without jobs or wages the bubble is EXTREMELY unlikely to reflate IMO.

That of course will lead to mortgage defaults and bankruptcies.

Deflation.

Mish