Hello carranza2, Our roles seem to have switch, with you being the skeptic and I being the main streamer. But then actually not, because, as indicated by real estate, bonds, and the equity markets, there are no clear and present emergencies, and according to gold, all is still tolerable.
I remember you were never big on gold in any case.
The truth about differences of view regarding political and geopolitical progression is that we actually do not have to argue until we are blue in the face, because if you are correct, you don’t have to argue, and if I am wrong, I cannot afford to argue.
The reason I engage the likes of Maurice and Crabbe in typewriter combat is that their ideas are simply dangerous, and they do not even know they are dangerous, thus making them the “must resist” targets.
Now, back to Iran, I was quite clear in the post that you responded to Message 22072072 ”it reads true to me, or at least partially true, or ought to be true, or, might as well be true, at least as a working hypothesis, a stake in the ground, around which we can ponder, and with which we can triangulate, once we spike another stake into the ground
fwiw, the point of departure as indicated by above works well into my road map toward teotwawki dawn, the point of arrival
and i might add, the drama of empire vs rebellion excites me
… as matters stand, we will either have global nuclear democracy, or we will have pre-emptive and forever wars, all complicated by a whole lot of things, and oil”
… and that remains my attitude in its totality.
To sum up, I do not care nearly as much about points of departure as I do about points of arrival.
Speaking of points of arrival, I went back in time, to dig up our earlier discussions about points of arrival, and look
Message 16945416
January 22nd, 2002
Hi carranza2, If we are in a situation that tends towards global deflation, and I believe we are, on the manufacturing side, then the authorities around the globe, each individually, for their respective interests and to cover respective mistakes, will print, and print some more, from the US to China, Japan to Argentina, Russia to Turkey, (I do not know about Euro zone and AustraAsia) and then print still more. Even as they act individually, the effect will be the same as if they acted in concert, and thus ‘get away with it’.
Ultimately inflation will win, at least on the services side, and maybe on the real estate side, probably on certain commodities, and possibly on gold, if it is not already, depending on definition used, I believe, because the levitating power of printed money is like gravity, inexorable.
Between manufacturing deflation, service inflation, relocation of factories, spreading of income generation, overall increase in demands for commodities, wealth (what is left of it) will be redistributed, from developed countries to China/India/Russia, from creditors to debtors, from Japan to the US/Europe/China, from the world to Argentina (in a manner of speaking, on what is left of it).
The abracadabra realization has not happened as yet: that as wealth and wealth generation is spread around, growth of wealth per person will be possibly less.
I do not know what happens when folks, companies and media reach this conclusion. They may just spin it as, ‘everyone will be richer, and the multiplier effect will make growth happen even faster, at a higher rate, for more prolonged period.
I just do not know. In any case, we got a while to go yet. Today (my last night) I sold some NEM June Covered Call, strike price 20. Expecting NEM to meander at 20 between now and then, or to drop due to merger dilution.
I am doing currency moves, and selling covered calls, all before January is done with!? 2002 will be a busy year:0)
Chugs, J
… and, here, again
Message 16945635
January 22nd, 2002
Hi Carranza2, …
I could be all wrong on this, and I am certainly not an expert on cause-effect, but,
(a) Because of manufacturing outsourcing, mostly offshore to the developed countries, manufacturing deflation proceeds, picking up speed as more of China/India/Russia (yes, Russia will be back) gets more and more into the act;
(b) Service inflation in developed countries, due to money printing, will also pickup speed. As in USD 500k will earn enough interest for 1.5 Big Mac meals per week;
© More folks around the world making a ‘living wage’ will put pressure on commodities; witness China’s effect on any given commodity trading when buying;
(d) Inflation is bad for creditors and ‘good’ for debtors;
(e) Manufacturing deflation is bad for developed economies, and ‘good’ for developing economies.
When ‘good’ and ‘bad’ are used as labels, folks forget that each coin has two sides, and both sides effect the economy, good and bad, but certainly tipping it from one golden equilibrium to another one, sometimes not so golden. So I am with you on <<The trend is not good … getting uglier>>.
I am with you on the real estate in beautiful places hedge.
I am not with you on <<Forget the dripping-with-blood-Aztec gold>> hedge.
I just do not know.
Chugs, J
… and now, here we are, a point of arrival from which we can look back, and appreciate the splendor that was, and discuss the splendor that could be.
Chugs, J |
