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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bid Buster who wrote (3581)	1/19/2006 1:46:31 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 218050

Y2K wasn't a recession. Production continued apace, unemployment didn't rise significant. Globally, the economies carried on regardless. Here's the gold graph from early 20th century. kitco.com <Speaking of gold, and atavistic Aztecs. Emergency, sell your gold and production mines before the denoument Message 22065977 Gold will go DOWN, not up when shirts are being lost. It's in good times, such as now, that gold goes up in price. Gold goes down in bad times. > Note what gold did after 1974 when the price of oil quadrupled, the oil embargo was on and economies went bung. Gold went down. Note the wallowing economy until things came right again in the late 1970s and the gold peak as oil prices peaked with another quadrupling as demand urged with strong economies. Note then the drop in gold as the early 1990s economies wallowed. Note the booming economies up to 1987 and rising gold price. The 1987 crunch was pretty good, but Uncle Al rescued the situation and the price of gold dropped and by the early 1990s, the economies came right and the relatively good mid 1990s saw gold steady. But then came the Asian contagion and crunches and gold dropped off again. Again, Uncle Al saved the day. By Y2K, irrational exuberance and booming economies peaked. While the share markets fell, there wasn't a recession and thanks to the record low interest rates as Uncle Al KBE pixelated like crazy and slashed Happy Meal payments to savers, the housing boom and economic boom continued apace, with China roaring along at 10% and Japan coming right again after a decade of crunching. Gold and economic booming has continued upwards for 3 more years. While I prefer to disagree with Ahahaha, when I checked his data, I found he was correct. Gold prices rise in boom times and drop in bust times. Which is contrary to what I'd imagined. But a special case is currency destruction, which might still come to pass, in which case gold would rise while recession and depression occur. What happens next? I think the boom will continue and gold rises will continue for a while. But at some stage, gold, which is just a commodity with no return on investment, will be given up for profit opportunities. The big question, the elephant in the living room, is the price of houses, cost of mortgages, ability to pay mortgages, rents and where to in the housing markets. While houses are not cheap, there might not be an implosion as things are not really too much out of kilter, overall. Not to mention the towering Twin Deficits, one of which suddenly disappeared in December. Mqurice