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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (50135)	1/19/2006 8:35:30 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Here's a snap shot at BZH, market is in the mode of spinning these order drops as positive, although backlog is firm, no cancellations given. Last quarter's profit margin was 23.5%, but couldn't locate this quarter's, but doesn't appear to be dropping suggesting little price cutting. Inventories: Sept: 2,901.2 Dec: 3.263.7 orders: Sept: 4,937 Dec: 3,872 backlog: Sept: 9,233 Dec: 9,276

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (50135)	1/19/2006 8:51:13 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

DHI looks more problematic: orders sliding, inventories up, slight dip in profit margins: Inventories: Sept: 8,486.8 Dec: 10,074.1 Backlog: Sept: 19,244 Dec: 20,816 orders: Sept: 13,950 Dec: 11,463 operating margin: Sept: 17.45% Dec: 16.9% Purchase index in 4th quarter averaged 465, first two weeks of January was 450, so don't think we can say these outfits are in much trouble, just a slow down. Would think they would slow down starts, and just work off inventory. With the purchase activity still running high, price cutting might not even be necessary. It's the cancellation rate on the backlog that is crucial, but so far they've managed to close their deals at a high enough rate. Also competition from resellers, especially ones stressed on resets. In terms of mortgage rates, I'm wondering if a worm hole is developing with the 5 year ARM again, what is it 5.5-5.625%. It's being heavily subsidized by Asian FCBs. Message 22075703