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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aleph0 who wrote (183960)	1/18/2006 4:09:36 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: Back to Jan 2000 prior to OptionsExpirey Thanks for the link. At least we'll know what might have happened if it happens again. :-\|

To: aleph0 who wrote (183960)	1/19/2006 3:24:02 AM
From: aleph0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Follow-up post from the Jan-2000 poster "optimist4737" ( nice to see he's still around ) [[ ed: I've broken it up to make it more reasable ]] // MHO;Sell open if large gap up by: optimist4737 01/18/06 11:52 pm Msg: 1306970 of 1307100 and wait a few days for the stock to settle is still my advice. I've been here for years and while the big intc miss caused an over reaction today IMO to the downside ie they still make money.. the expiration of the Jan cycle is eminent and can cause a perturbation that can confound. Generally when everyone is celebrating is the best time to take profits. When you high five each other be sure to have that profit locked up. Aside from that I have a bit of a different spin on things.. I am a bit disappointed that they didn't make more money on the big revenue and sales jump. I thought more would transit to the bottom line given the gross margin of 58%. I know when they were making 1.2B in rev. a qtr. it was stated that sales over that would go straight to the bottom line yet with a 600m increase in sales they only made 96m notice I am comparing it with spansion both times. So by oversimplified guesstimating a 600m rev. boost yields 100m in profit. ~17%net profit margin on above break even revs. I thought it would be greater that's all. Now the model will clear itself up now without spansion revs and the drag against profits yet we are not as profitable as intc. even given our smaller size. We make 100m on 1.8B rev. they make 2.5b on 10.2 rev. =6X the rev and 25times the profit of Amd... so just to keep you guys sober in your partying keep that in mind and gross margins were about the same as intc this qtr 58% vs 58% so what gives??..why don't the numbers jive? Is it due to the fact we are spansion rev heavy/profit neg. vs. intc? In other words spansion is a bigger % of our revs vs. intc so it tends to misalign the comparison? No flames please I'm a long time AMD guy 18 yrs. trading it in some capacity the whole time. Q: if we both have 58% margins why don't we have profit/revs more in line with intc? Jmho and have fun partying but do take some profits and reload after the volatility crunch and pullback after the 4+ gap up in the morning. Advice:sell 3-5+ gap up on longs to cash in profit and use 90 min rule to scale sell more if you have any leftover bullets to neutralize long side and wait patently for a traders pullback after specialist has positoned himself. note specialist will openstock where he has help selling and can make his money by backtracing the gap. JMHO good luck in any case and what a great qtr. // ..http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687810&tid=amd&sid=4687810&mid=1306970