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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (50228)	1/19/2006 1:36:51 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

RDN gave an excellent presentation, well worth listening to. Highlights in no particular order: huge buy back last year, about 10% of shares out. They are not likely to buy back this year so there should be no artificial support. Sherman had a big one time opportunity last year. That was what MTG said also, who is the other majority owner of Sherman. It is not likely to repeat this year. C BASS and Sherman was about 1/4 of RDN's earnings. Defaults up for Katrina, pool and others. CEO sounded concerned. Had earnings from cancellation of single premium policies. Still have around $200 million of these on the books but if they do not cancel (I guess that means early payoff), they will only realize the earnings through time. Offering other products based on demand. I am not sure if these are tested enough. Bottomline, they are all related to defaults, claims and loss severity. I do appreciate their breaking down the default numbers. It is the first quarter that they are doing it. It is very informative not only for RDN, the MI business but also for the other lenders.

To: ild who wrote (50228)	1/19/2006 1:48:47 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Jan 19 2006 13:38 trotsky (@gold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yesterday, CNBC Europe had analysts ponitificate on the question of whether gold was ready to turn down. the 'turning point in gold' was the number two headline. caution was urged, with the usual set of bear arguments presented ( my favorite is 'it's all just speculation' - remember where we heard this one first? that's right, w.r.t. oil for the past 3 years ) . that said, it wouldn't be too surprising if a corrective period commences here...maybe just a period of consolidation, although i note the sentiment data remain as benign as ever. the XAU put/call OI ratio remains close to a 52-week high, while Rydex traders continue to be skeptical. a brief spurt of inflows three days ago has been almost completely reversed over the past two days - in short, in terms of money flows, traders have no more bullish commitment than at the 2005 lows in the Rydex pm fund. this means there remains a considerable amount of money on the sidelines that will probably join in before this rally meets with an intermediate term turning point. short term we must probably expect some volatility. the pm stocks look pretty stretched, and there are a number of resistance points just overhead ( e.g. the '87 and '96 highs in the XAU between 150 and 155, and also fibo related resistance at 144 ) . of course these resistance points could easily get blown away by the ever-present 'event risk' ( like e.g. today's threats by OBL ) . there's also the fact that institutional investors remain woefully underinvested in the sector ( i.e.,many generalist fund managers have probably missed much of the rally ) and Wall Street is still lukewarm too. there's still plenty of scope for analyst upgrades. recall that Wall Street jumped on the oil bandwagon with a considerable delay as well.