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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kris b who wrote (50231)	1/19/2006 12:37:06 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

What are your favorite targets? I have mostly SPF, KBH and LEN. I used this table to pick ones with most exposure to CA, FL and AZ: idorfman.com

To: kris b who wrote (50231)	1/19/2006 12:51:28 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

not as important as cancellations.> There are old orders closing at a high rate, so that suggests cancellations have been largely replaced. However, the new orders have slowed relative to inventories, so I'm looking at price cuts and fewer starts to bring in line. I suspect they have a worm hole developing now with the 5 year ARM to move this crap to new speculators, who will in turn put up even more "for rent" signs. Countering that however is the negative cash flows of older speculators in prior communities, who are trying to sell, all a mess really.

To: kris b who wrote (50231)	1/19/2006 1:17:25 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

I hear national builders starting to discount in the few still hot markets to make the overall national sales numbers but lower margins overall than need be in the hope Wall Street doesn't notice.

To: kris b who wrote (50231)	1/20/2006 1:33:07 PM
From: Bill/WA	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

kris, you are spot on. I too was a contractor (GC) in northern Palm Bch Cty for 30 some years starting in early 70's (bad timing, eh? Banks CAN do some of the stupidest lending. A perfect example was a high end development (River Ridge) that a super scam artist conned Community Fed. Sav. into. With a little research, they would've found out this guy almost busted a bank in Mich. & scammed another in CO. He flew in Jimmy Conners & Ivan Lendel telling the bank that one of them would be the tennis pro. The bank fell "hook, line, & sinker". And, sure enough, the bank ended up with it. And, as far as the rent thingy...yes, the bank did allow some of the few models that were built, be occupied by people that would pay taxes & utilities. BTW, apparently this guy scammed one too many (or the wrong person). He died when he crashed his Porche on a mountain road in New Mexico...something about leaky brake lines. <NG>