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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (50240)	1/19/2006 1:11:46 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"I said gold did. Gold acts like money. It did extremely well in the great depression as did mining companies. " Didn't gold bottom and then take off three years into the great depression? That could be happening here. We could be way into a stagflationary depression right now and not even know it<g>

To: mishedlo who wrote (50240)	1/19/2006 1:17:28 PM
From: shades	Respond to of 110194

mining companies. Message 22077952 Coal and mining were some of the best sectors last year - indicators perhaps Mish? Thus, it is possible to have deflation and an increase in money supply if credit contraction happens at a greater pace. This happened to hoover - he told the fed to inflate - they did - but all the banks built up thier reserves and people horded thier money - so he stopped trying to inflate the money supply and started a "war on hording" Look at all of us here clicking buttons all day - not doing anything physical - lots of busywork to make for people in virtual land Neo. I still think the gubbment can create busywork far more effectively or with reckless abandon than you give them credit for Mish. the bridges to nowhere are just the tip of the iceberg.

To: mishedlo who wrote (50240)	1/19/2006 1:59:02 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish People keep throwing out silly strawmen all the time and it is getting to be ridiculously time consuming to respond to them. Poor baby! Incorporate all the facts into a theory that makes sense and you might have to spend less time defending the illogical points of it. Whining about being misunderstood when you refuse to examine conflicting evidence to your theories says more about you than it does for the arguments your whining about. You pick a commodity as your deflation play and then go about trying to prove that "this commodity is different". Pure illogic at its worst. Examine the issue of why Russia didn't have deflation when their currency and credit collapsed. Explain why that can't happen here. You won't because you can't, but you seem good at holding your breath and stamping your feet. Quit thinking that your argument is the only one with merit, try looking for what makes an opposing argument effective or possible, integrate all the facts or recognize and acknowledge those that seem not to currently fit. Be dispassionate. I have laid out the case for deflation a zillion times... Yes, and yelling louder won't make the case any more effectively.....answering the issues that are raised that don't dovetail with your neat little package in a way that those who raise the issues can accept might. You dismiss this and that and the other thing and then claim you've answered the rebuttals or that the rebuttals are all straw men, that's not dealing with them effectively or you wouldn't see them come up so often and from so many different folks. Yell, scream and cuss all you want but at the end of the day the inconsistencies in any theory will still have their day. The largest one in yours is that deflation was not the order of the day in many countries that had a credit collapse. The ones where deflation occurred had relatively stable currencies, the ones where inflation ruled the day did not. Fundamentally the USD is seriously flawed, the chance of it not being a relatively stable currency going forward is high enough for the outcome (deflation/inflation) to be a coin toss at best. Certainly high enough to warrant being prepared for multiple scenarios and not just deflation. Timba