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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (50267)	1/19/2006 3:24:13 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think comparing Russia in 1991 to ANY other country makes much sense. RE: Inflation vs. Deflation I see that most posters here (and I respect all of them) make the same mistake over and over again. They use words Inflation and Deflation without qualifiers. IMO we'll have inflation (or won't have deflation) in the stuff we buy from abroad. Mostly due to sinking value of USD. We may have a little inflation in consumable goods produced locally. (Eat corn, it's cheap!). But I strongly believe we'll have a big debt deflation and deflation in paper assets including RE (I consider most of recent gains in RE as "paper" gains). Would you call me inflationist or deflationist? I have my own opinion on interest rates. I don't think the bonds will crash, but I do think that mortgage rates will go much higher. The junk spreads will widen. I see the risk will be priced back in many asset classes. EDIT: Right now all markets/assets are buoyed by the tide in liquidity. As Warren Buffett said, when the tide goes out, you find out who's been swimming without a swimming suit.