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To: economaniack who wrote (184390)1/19/2006 3:30:10 PM
From: fastpathguruRespond to of 275872
 
Didn't Intel say they failed to meet even their mid-Q update because "somebody failed to make an order at the end of the quarter"? (paraphrased)

I could swear I read that somewhere. If you assume that Intel Inside was the tool they used to make good predictions, this would indeed indicate that the program is breaking down (or is gone altogether) and with it, the highly predictable "demand."

fpg



To: economaniack who wrote (184390)1/19/2006 3:34:37 PM
From: combjellyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
"Similar targets for retail outlets could essentially force AMD products off the shelves at the end of a difficult quarter."

This certainly models the behavior we have been witnessing. AMD would just disappear off the shelves for a few weeks for no apparent reason.

Your speculation about HP is likely correct. Given the new CEO's background, I am pretty sure he hasn't been happy with a situation where Intel dictated his company's profitability and Dell's special status.

This also goes a long way towards explaining why 65nm was pushed out for Fab36. They need to bring up Fab36 as soon as possible. 65nm was a risk, bringing it up on 90nm was much less of a risk. And they need to reassure HP that they could add capacity as they need it. As it was, things did get tight in Q4, but not too tight. So now Fab36 will be shipping in another month or so, and Chartered becomes available a couple of months after that. Hmmm....



To: economaniack who wrote (184390)1/19/2006 4:53:51 PM
From: hopeless_hackerRespond to of 275872
 
Hello Economaniack,

Your example of Intel's pricing structure and use of discounts and marginal pricing tactics against AMD is the best I've ever read.

It will provide everybody a keen insight in how
predatory pricing works (worked) in the Intel world, and why it is so special to see AMD seemingly break this program.

Hats of to Hector and his team



To: economaniack who wrote (184390)1/19/2006 5:20:54 PM
From: Joe NYCRespond to of 275872
 
economaniac,

Good post. DARBES said similar thing here, in fewer words:
Message 22070078

Joe



To: economaniack who wrote (184390)1/19/2006 5:31:48 PM
From: BiomavenRead Replies (4) | Respond to of 275872
 
Very interesting analysis.

Let's assume you are correct and the Intel low-marginal cost incentive program has indeed broken down. (And it's certainly possible that the lawsuit had a big influence on this). What do you see that doing for Intel's and AMD's next quarters? What does Intel's new pricing model look like?

I'm still puzzled by the huge ASP disparity between Intel and AMD.

Peter