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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (50290)	1/19/2006 5:07:24 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Well the 30,000 per week was the few weeks right before the law went into affect. It was also right after Katrina. So how much of that was Katrina? But.... The biggest state was California so that should shoot to pieces any idea that this was all hurricane related. I wish I knew what "normal" was. Are there any stats for 2004? At any rate, after the OCT 21 deadline the rate crashed to 3,500 but is already back over 5,000 per week. That would only be 260,000 per year. But... no one expected rising bankruptcies this fast. Note what I said in my blog, about California property tax delinquencies at 1994 rates (all time highs). What happens if people can no longer do that cash out refi to pay taxes? Thoughts on all of this? HMMMM I see that 30,000 * 52 does not even hit 2 million. Just waht were those rates headed into October and what were the rates for the rest of the year since Nov and DEC were only 4,000 per week or so. Mish

To: John Vosilla who wrote (50290)	1/19/2006 5:18:45 PM
From: Gotham Guru	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<<According to that article it still would have been 1 in about 66 in 2004. Sounds like a society of perpetual bankruptcy. At this rate by 2009 a stunning 1 in 5 should have filed for bankruptcy under two terms of GWB..>> What does GWB have to do with bankruptcies?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (50290)	1/19/2006 5:30:06 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Sounds like a society of perpetual bankruptcy. Personal bankruptcies never proceed evenly, they tend to rise in the beginning of expansions and fall in contractions (mostly because there is a time lag and contractions since 1981 have been short-lived). Bankruptcies rose sharply between 1994-1998. That rate of increase didn't last. Look at figure 1, you can see that they proceed in a sort of stair step fashion: cbo.gov